Hello to all…

The Moderate El Nino conditions continue to supress Atlantic Tropical activity by providing hostile upper level winds over the Atlantic. The systems mentioned in yesterday’s update have all fallen apart and the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida does not list any tropical systems having a chance for formation over the next 48 hours.

In the Eastern Pacific, one system has a low chance (less than 30 percent) for development 750 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California. The Pacific has certainly been more active than the Atlantic in 2009 but even there it is fairly quiet currently.

The VoIP Hurricane Net Management Team will continue to monitor the progress of the tropics. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net

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Hello to all…

For mid-September, the Atlantic Tropics have been unusually quiet as a moderate El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean has caused a hostile upper level wind environment that has resulted in a lack of activity in the Atlantic despite it being the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. That said, there are now a couple of systems being monitored in the Atlantic.

The first system is a small low pressure area in association with the remnants of Fred which has continued to produce intermittent shower and thunderstorm activity and has some potential for development. This system is located 475 miles east of the Northwest Bahamas and is moving west at 10-15 MPH. Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon though the latest tropical weather outlook states it has a low chance (less than 30%) of development.

Another system 1200 miles east of the Leeward Islands has become better organizard overnight and has the potential to become a tropical depression over the next day or two as it moves west-northwest at around 10 MPH. This system currently has a high chance, greater than 50% of development. Computer model runs, however, are indicating that this system could stay out at sea and recurve away from land if it does develop.

In the Pacific, Marty, once a tropical storm, is now a tropical depression well away from land areas and is expected to degenerate to a remnant low tonight or Sunday. Another small area of low pressure has a high chance (50% or greater of development) of becoming a tropical depression before upper level winds become less favorable for further development. None of these systems are a threat to land at this time.

The VoIP Hurricane Net Management Team will closely monitor the progress of these systems. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net

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Hello to all…

As stated earlier today, Recon Aircraft investigated the system east of the Leeward Islands and its investigation found Tropical Storm Erika with Maximum Sustained winds of 50 MPH and located about 390 Miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Erika has the possibility of affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands with tropical storm force conditions or it could stay over the open waters of the Atlantic with minimal impact to the islands. Erika is expected to slowly intensify at first and then may weaken for a bit before intensifying later in the period and potentially reaching hurricane strength late in the period or after the 120 hour time period. Its intensity may also determine the track with a weaker system being steered more to the west while a stronger system may be steered more toward the northwest. Future model runs and the intensity of Erika will better define the track. The advisory information for Erika can be found at the VoIP Hurricane Net web site at http://www.voipwx.net off the Main Menu of the web site. It can also be seen at the National Hurricane Center web site via the link below:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

VoIP Hurricane Net Activation for Erika doesn’t appear to be needed for several days. That said, the VoIP Hurricane Net Management Team will closely monitor the progress of Erika for any changes in track, intensity and anything unexpected from the system. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net

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Hello to all..

The Atlantic Tropics have a couple systems that are being monitored. The first system is about 275 miles east of the Leeward Islands and has the potential to be a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm at any time in the next couple of days as the system moves west-northwest at 10 MPH. Reconnaisance Aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon for possible classification as it has a high chance greater than 50% for development.

A tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic between the Cape Verde Islands and Africa is showing some signs of organization but development if any is expected to be slow to occur as the system moves west to west-northwest at 10-15 MPH. This has a low chance, less than 30% for development and we’d have several days to monitor this system before it reaches any land area.

Meantime in the Pacific, Hurricane Jimena is posed to threaten portions of Baja California as an extremely dangerous category-IV hurricane. At this time, the VoIP Hurricane Net has no plans to formally activate for Jimena as per coordination with WX4NHC Coordinators, this is a very remote area with very few Ham Operators. If, however, there are folks that have access to Hams or people in this area where we could gather reports, we would be interested in receiving this information and could consider activation if we have contact with the affected area.

The VoIP Hurricane Net Management Team will closely monitor conditions in the Tropics. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net

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Hello to all…

Tropical Storm Danny has now formed in the Atlantic Ocean from an area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas. Danny poses a threat to the US East Coast from the Carolinas to New England over the next 3-5 days. VoIP Hurricane Net activation could start by Thursday Evening/Friday Morning assuming Danny reaches hurricane strength and will merge with New England/Northeast operations by Saturday assuming hurricane strength and the current track guidance doesn’t show much deviation. Latest advisory information can be seen on the VoIP Hurricane Net web site at http://www.voipwx.net and looking under Atlantic Tropical Products. The information can also be seen at the National Hurricane Center web site at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

The VoIP Hurricane Net Management Team will closely monitor the progress of Danny. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net

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Hello to all..

..VoIP Hurricane Net to activate formally at 4 AM EDT Sunday August 23rd for Hurricane Bill’s Impact on Nova Scotia and Newfoundland Canada. Cape Cod and Nantucket Island and possibly Martha’s Vineyard are likely to experience Tropical Storm force conditions and WX1BOX-NWS Taunton Operations will be active on the system to monitor this threat during the late night and overnight hours..
..The *NEW-ENG* Echolink Conference Node: 9123/IRLP Reflector 9123 system will be cross-linked to the *WX_TALK* Echolink Conference Node: 7203/IRLP 9219 system for the duration of this event..
…WX4NHC Operations Will Activate Around 8-9 AM EDT Sunday August 23rd for Hurricane Bill’s Impact on Nova Scotia and Newfoundland Canada..
..Call-Up Net for Canadian Stations to take place on the Saturday Evening VoIP Hurricane Prep Net at 8 PM ET Saturday/0000 UTC Sunday followed by VoIP Hurricane Prep Net informal operations coordinated with WX1BOX-NWS Taunton on Southeast New England Impact..

Hurricane Bill will move about 150 nautical miles southeast of Nantucket Island during the late evening hours Saturday and early morning hours Sunday and then will move swiftly Northeastward into Nova Scotia Canada with the potential for hurricane force winds on Nova Scotia and tropical storm force winds likely in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. The VoIP Hurricane Net will do its call-up net as part of the weekly VoIP Hurricane Prep Net at 8 PM EDT and then activate informally overnight until formal activation around 4 AM ET Sunday August 23rd. Operations at WX4NHC will be active by 9 AM EDT.

We could use any relays and stations that can assist with reports from the Canadian Maritimes and Southeastern New England tonight into Sunday. Any Amateur Radio Operators with contacts in the affected area or can monitor and relay traffic heard on 40 and 80 Meters would be very helpful to our operations.

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Hello to all…

It has been very busy here in New England as a squall line of severe thunderstorms developed yesterday with a Tornado Watch posted for portions of New England. Local Storm Report for the NWS Taunton County Warning Area follows below:

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/0908212359.nwus51.html

Hurricane Bill is still expected to pass offshore of Southeast New England but a bit closer than expected which means we could have tropical storm force conditions over Nantucket Island and the Outer Cape where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings have been posted for portions of the Canadian Maritimes and a Hurricane Watch for Guysborough, Sydney Metro and Cape Breton Counties and Richmond County. Coordination with Radio Amateurs of Canada has already taken place and will continue.

The VoIP Hurricane Prep Net for this evening will be a modified net for preparations for Hurricane Bill over the Canadian Maritimes and for tropical storm force conditions over the Outer Cape and Nantucket Island later this evening and Sunday Morning. The VoIP Hurricane Net will be active tonight through Sunday Night for Hurricane Bill. Further details will follow in an activation announcement later today. We’ll continue to monitor the westward wobbles of Hurricane Bill for impact in Southeast New England.

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator for NWS Taunton Massachusetts
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator

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Official Announcements of N0DRC-Dustin Cox and N0UAM-Jim Sellars to the VoIP Hurricane Net Management Team
 
It is important that the VoIP Hurricane Net has enough depth within the Net Management Team that if some members of the Net Management Team are affected by a disaster in their local or regional area, that we have sufficient coverage to maintain the VoIP Hurricane Net to support WX4NHC’s mission to help save lives. This means having enough appointees on the Net Management Team to support the net from a Continuity of Operations perspective. To address this need, I am pleased to announce the appointments of N0DRC-Dustin Cox and N0UAM-Jim Sellars to the VoIP Hurricane Net Management Team.
 
N0DRC-Dustin Cox will be an Assistant Director of Operations and Assistant Net Scheduler for the VoIP Hurricane Net. Dustin is heavily involved in Emergency Communications and is also an Emergency Medical Technician (EMT). Dustin has memberships within ARES, SKYWARN, Red Cross Disaster Services and the Southern Baptist Amatuer Radio Service (SouthBEARS). Dustin has made significant contributions to the net as a net control station during numerous 2008 VoIP Hurricane Net Activations and has been active in the 2009 VoIP Hurricane Weekly Prep Nets. Dustin is currently living in  Raton, New Mexico where he is active as a local SKYWARN Coordinator for the Raton, New Mexico area.
 
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Hello to all…

Here is the latest update on the Tropics:

Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall in the Florida Panhandle shortly after midnight. Claudette has now weakened to a Tropical Depression and the National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Claudette. Further advisories will be issued by the Hydrometerological Prediction Center (HPC) as Claudette’s remnants make their way further inland.

Bill is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Bill is expected to continue to intensify and could become a major hurricane on Wednesday. Bill is expected to remain over the open Atlantic waters not affecting any land areas through the next 5-days.

Ana is currently a weak tropical depression and may dissipate later today as the system is currently very week. If it survives the day, Ana is likely to go over the terrain of Hispaniola and is quite likely to dissipate upon that landfall if that occurs. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Puerto Rico, the US and British Virgin Islands, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St. Maarten, St. Martin, Saba, St. Eustatius, Guadelope, St. Barthelemy, and the Dominican Repulic from Cabo Engano westward to Cabo Beata.

Thanks very much to folks who were on the *WX-TALK* Node: 7203/IRLP 9219 reflector system Sunday Evening and on the weekly prep net Saturday Evening. The VoIP Hurricane Net’s activation threshold is generally for all hurricanes or potentially strong tropical storms with maximum sustained winds of 65 MPH or higher as tropical storms of that magnitude could get to hurricane strength before landfall and could produce category-1 hurricane type damage. Weaker tropical storms do not prompt a formal net but we may have folks monitor the system during those events as personnel allow.

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Hello to all…

After a very slow start to the season, the Atlantic Tropics have become a very busy place in the last week. Yet another Tropical Depression (TD), TD #4 has formed in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. This system organized fairly rapidly overnight and unexpectedly so. Further stregthening is expected and TD #4 is expected to become a tropical storm prior to landfall along the Northern Gulf Coast of Florida. If this occurs as expected, TD #4 would be named Claudette. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Alabama/Florida broder eastward to the Suwanee River Florida. The effects of the storm may cover a small area as it is a small system but nonetheless strong winds and heavy rain can be expected near and around the center of the system. At the moment, this system is not expected to reach hurricane strength but the VoIP Hurricane Net Management Team will monitor the system closely.

Ana has not intensified overnight and the later forecasts have brought down her intensity and have her tracking over more of the island chain of the Caribbean. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Puerto Rico, the US and British Virgin Islands, Montseratt, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St. Maaten, Saba and St. Eustatius. Ana is expected to bring strong winds and rainfall of 2-4″ with isolated 6″ amounts over the higher terrain. The VoIP Hurricane Net Management Team will closely monitor the progress of Ana.

Bill has intensified slightly overnight. Further intensification is expected and Bill is expected to become the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Models have adjusted the track a bit further north so if this holds, Bill is likely to miss the Caribbean islands and stay over the open waters of the Atlantic over the next 5 days but track guidance out to 5 days can change significantly. Therefore, the VoIP Hurricane Net Management Team will closely monitor the progress of Bill.

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