Hello to all….

TD-12 has formed in the Open Atlantic. TD-12 is expected to intensify into a tropical storm in the next day or two and may reach hurricane strength in 5 days. At this time, TD-12 is not expected to impact any land areas but this will be monitored closely. If TD-12 intensifies as expected, it would be named Karen.

The VoIP Hurricane Net Management team will closely monitor the progress of TD-12. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net
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Hello to all….

Subtropical Depression 11 has become Subtropical Storm Jerry as of the 11 AM EDT/1500 UTC Sunday 9/23 Advisory. Jerry may become fully tropical and strengthen a bit more before being absorbed by a larger non-tropical system. Jerry poses no threat to land and is largely only a concern for marine interests in the open Atlantic and Jerry is not expected to become a hurricane at this time.

There remains several other areas where tropical depressions could develop per the previous tropical update. The VoIP Hurricane Net management team will continue to monitor the progress of these systems. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net
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Hello to all….

The Tropics have become very active in the last couple of days with Subtropical Depression (TD) 11 forming in the open Atlantic west of the Azores. In addition, there are several other potential systems that may become Tropical Depressions in the next several days.

SubTropical Depression 11 has formed in the open Atlantic west of the Azores and is expected to take on tropical characteristics and become a tropical storm before being absorbed but a larger non-tropical system. If that were to occur, it would be named Jerry as Tropical Depression 10 made landfall in the Northern Gulf of Mexico prior to becoming a tropical storm. Sub TD-11 should remain over open waters and be no threat to land. Several other systems have the potential to become tropical depressions in the next few days and are being monitored per the National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook.

A broad area of low pressure in the Northern Yucatan Peninsula is moving into a favorable environment for intensification as it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Recon Aircraft may investigate this system later today.

Another broad area of low pressure associated with a westward moving tropical wave about 450 miles east of the Windward Islands is continuing to get better organized. A tropical depression may form in this area during the next couple of days as it moves through the Windward islands.

Yet another tropical wave about 600 miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is showing signs of organization. This system also has the potential to become a tropical depression as it moves to the West at 15 MPH.

There is the possibility that we could have as many as 4 tropical systems to monitor over the next several days. The VoIP Hurricane Net Management team will continue to monitor the active pattern we now appear to be in across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net
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Hello to all….

Sub Tropical Depression (TD) 10 has formed in the Northeast Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Watches have been posted for portions of the Florida Panhandle, Southern Alabama, Southern Mississippi and Southeast Louisiana. Sub TD-10 is expected to intensify into a tropical storm and if that occurs, it will be named Jerry. It is not expected to intensify into a hurricane at this time.

The VoIP Hurricane Net Management Team will continue to closely monitor this situation. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net
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Hello to all….

A tropical system off the coast of Florida in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico is showing signs of organization and an Air Force Recon unit will be investigating the system later today. It has the potential to form into a subtropical or tropical cyclone. Interests in the Northern Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system.

Another system about 1,000 miles east of Bermuda is also being monitored for signs of tropical development. The VoIP Hurricane Net Management team will continue to closely monitor the progress of both these systems. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net
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Hello to all….

TD #8 strengthened into Tropical Storm Ingrid late Thursday Evening. Ingrid may intensify a bit more before encountering westerly shear which will halt intensification and potentially weaken the system. Ingrid is expected to stay over the open waters and be no threat to land over the next several days.

The VoIP Hurricane Net management team will continue to closely monitor the progress of Ingrid. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net
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Hello to all….

Humberto surprised forecasters and intensified into a hurricane despite being very close to land. I want to thank several stations including an Amateur from Houma, Lousiana, AA5HY-Dave from DeSoto Louisiana ARES and several stations on the N5KBW Repeater near Port Arthur, Texas for the information they were able to provide Thursday Morning and it was appreciated. These stations gave their own conditions while relaying reports from other repeaters/frequencies to try and ascertain conditions near Humberto. Also, thanks to Lloyd Colston-KC5FM, for relaying reports from the Texas 40 Meter traffic net.

As many are aware, Humberto was a surprise in the amount of damage it caused and its rate of intensification. One of the issues in hurricane prediction that is still particularly problematic is intensification/weakening of tropical systems. To give you the idea of the rarity of such an intensification rate near land, here is a quote from the 11 AM EDT National Hurricane Center Technical Discussion written by Hurricane Specialist James Franklin:

BASED ON OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES…HUMBERTO STRENGTHENED FROM A 30 KT DEPRESSION AT 15Z YESTERDAY TO A 75 KT HURRICANE AT 09Z THIS MORNING…AN INCREASE OF 45 KT IN 18 HOURS. TO PUT THIS DEVELOPMENT IN PERSPECTIVE…NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD HAS EVER REACHED THIS INTENSITY AT A FASTER RATE NEAR LANDFALL. IT WOULD BE NICE TO KNOW…SOMEDAY…WHY THIS HAPPENED.

In fact, per an AP Internet article, only 3 tropical systems, Blanche in 1969, Harvey in 1981, and Alberto in 1982 have ever made such a rapid intensification and these systems were all away from land. Humberto was the first system ever to rapidly intensify in the same manner as these systems and be close to land.

Finally, a report was found on a New England Weather Forum called Eastern US weather on damage and conditions in Southeast Texas from a poster who had a contact with an individual in Harris County, TX flood control. Below is the text of that report:

Here are the Harris County Texas Flood Control reports:

Harris County Flood Control:
1 fatality in Bridge City TX

Total power outages : 115,000

Power infrastructure is damaged, but large transmission towers appear to have survived..so outages should be confined to 3-5 days.

First damage assessment teams indicate wind damage is confined to roofing materials and window failures as well as widespread tree fall.

Galveston, Chambers, Jefferson, Orange counties are requesting federal disaster declarations.

Jefferson Co:
73,000 without power.
Widespread minor to moderate wind damage to structures across the county.
Petro-chemical plants in BPT have been knocked offline due to power failures (Valero, Motiva, and Total Petrochemicals)
All critical services are offline (water, sewer, hospitals, gas stations)

City of Port Arthur is 80% without power.
Hampshire area: significant wind damage to houses with trees down and into homes.

Orange County:
Entire county is without power.
Widespread tree fall into structures

Galveston County:
HWY 87 is closed to all traffic
Large powerline transmission towers have collapsed onto HWY 87.
Storm surge and wave action breached parts of HWY 87.
Estimated power restoration to Bolivar is 3-5 days.
Houses have suffered wind damage to roofs and decking at Crystal Beach and High Island.
It is estimated that 500 residents are stranded on Bolivar

Humberto will be an excellent research case for forecasters for better hurricane intensity prediction. Thanks to those Hams who assisted quickly to a rapidly changing weather situation. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net 1
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Hello to all….

Humberto has intensified unexpectedly into a hurricane during the overnight hours and is a Category-1 hurricane. His peak intensity was 85 MPH and is now down to 80 MPH. The hurricane force wind field is small extending about 15 miles from the center. Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles. Humberto made landfall in Southeast Texas and is now entering Southwest Lousiana.

Due to the unexpected intensification and the fact it occurred during overnight hours with no pre-planned activation ramp up, no formal VoIP Hurricane Net activation has taken place but we are now informally monitoring *WX-TALK* EchoLink conference node: 7203 and IRLP reflector 9219 for any stations in the affected area that have reports per the reporting criteria. This monitoring will continue until about Noon EDT/1600 UTC. If you have any reports per the reporting criteria on the voipwx.net web site, please get in touch with us via email, EchoLink or IRLP.

Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net 1
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Hello to all….

Tropical Depression (TD) #9, the system in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico, has strengthened into Tropical Storm Humberto. Humberto may intensify a bit more before making landfall along the Texas coast. Humberto is not anticipated to reach hurricane strength but this will be monitored closely. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net
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Hello to all….

Tropical Depression (TD) #8 has formed east of the Lesser Antilles. TD #8 is expected to intensify and is expected to become a tropical storm later today or Thursday. This system poses no immediate threat to land as of yet but the system will be monitored.

Tropical Depression (TD) #9 has formed in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico. TD #9 is expected to reach tropical storm strength before making landfall in Texas. It is not expected to reach hurricane strength before landfall but this will be monitored.

If TD #8 and TD #9 intensify to tropical storm intensity, they would be named Humberto and Ingrid respectively and they would be named depending on which one intensifies to tropical storm status first. The first one that intensifies to TS status will be given the name Humberto and the second one that intensifies to TS status will be given the name Ingrid.

The VoIP Hurricane Net Management team continues to monitor the Tropics carefully. Advisories can be obtained via the National Hurricane Center web site at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov or via the VoIP Hurricane Net web site at http://www.voipwx.net and clicking Atlantic Tropical Products from the Main Menu. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net
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