Hello to all….

At 11 AM EDT/1500 UTC Monday August 13th, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) based in Honolulu, Hawaii has issued a Hurricane Watch for the big island of Hawaii for Hurricane Flossie. Flossie remains an extremely dangerous Category IV hurricane. Flossie is expected to weaken as it approached the big island but has the potential to bring hurricane force conditions to the big island. The track and intensity of the system will ultimately determine the impact to the big island of Hawaii.

The VoIP Hurricane Net management team has been in daily contact with Connie McCurdy-NH7IE, a Net Control for the VoIP Hurricane Net who is from Hawaii and is involved with SKYWARN for NWS Honolulu, Hawaii. We have discussed and are prepared to offer our support in whatever manner she sees fit. The support model here is different since the CPHC is co-located with NWS Honolulu, HI but she has already mentioned the possible need for NCO support during their overnight hours.

The VoIP Hurricane Net Management team is closely monitoring the progress of Hurricane Flossie and may offer support to Hawaii SKYWARN and Civil Defense to the extent that it is needed. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net
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Hello to all….

Within the past week, NOAA and Dr. Gray have both issued their Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks. Their outlooks call for slightly less activity but remain insistent on above normal acitivity for the Atlantic. Details on the forecasts can be seen at the following links:

NOAA Press Release and Outlook Links:
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2905.htm
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml

Dr. Gray’s Hurricane Outlook Link to current and previous forecasts:
http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/

While the activity level has been lowered, the season is still expected to be active. While there have only been 3 tropical systems so far this year and they have been relatively weak with none of them reaching hurricane strength, the peak of hurricane season is September 15th and the majority of activity, even in active years, typically occurs in August through October. A particular year of note with that trend is 2004 where the first named system wasn’t until August but from August through mid-October, the season was extremely active with many land areas affected by tropical systems, particularly, the state of Florida.

For this year, an active pattern still appears likely. The key to how the season will be remembered is the location, and intensity of systems and whether they impact land areas. In 1992, there were only 7 named systems, but Hurricane Andrew affected the lives of many people.

The VoIP Hurricane Net Management team continues to monitor the tropics closely. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net
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Hello to all….

A few items of interest in the tropics as of August 11th, 1130 AM/1530 UTC.

In the Central Pacific, Hurricane Flossie is now a major hurricane and the National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida has issued its last advisory on the system and advisories will now be picked up by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii. The VoIP Hurricane Net web site will be updated after 6 PM EDT/2200 UTC with links to the advisory information from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

It appears Flossie has reached its peak intensity but intensity forecasts can be problematic so this will be monitored closely. The current track guidance passes Flossie south of Hawaii but much of Hawaii remains in the cone of uncertainity as far as the track of Flossie and there is a concern that if the High pressure ridge breaks down more than what models forecast, the system could have more impact to that area though its questionable how strong it would be as we move out in time as well. This will be monitored closely and contact has been made with VoIP Net Control Operator, Connie-NH7IE, who is in Hawaii in case our support is needed.

In the Atlantic, a vigorous tropical wave is moving off the Africa coast. Various weather computer models have been insistent for several days that this system could develop and become significant with possible land areas on the Atlantic side impacted, however, model guidance is not always correct and its many days away from impacting anyone if it even develops but it is worth noting this system at this time for long range planning purposes given the models consistency with developing this system.

The VoIP Hurricane Net Management Team will continue to monitor the progress of Flossie and activity in the Atlantic over the next few days. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net
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Hello to all….

TD #3 has become Tropical Storm Chantal in the open waters of the North Atlantic. Chantal is expected to transition into an extratropical system in the next day or so and could cause problems for shipping interests as a large extratropical system.

A system east of the Southern Windward Islands is still being monitored for development though it has become a bit less organized in the last few hours. Environmental conditions still remain favorable for development and the system should continue to be montiored through the Tropical Weather Outlook posted by the National Hurricane Center.

Information on Chantal and the system east of the Southern Windward Islands can be found on the VoIP Hurricane Net web site at http://www.voipwx.net

Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net
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Hello to all….

Tropical Depression 3 has formed in the Atlantic, halfway between Cape Cod, Massachusetts and Bermuda. The depression is moving North-Northeast away from land areas. The depression may briefly strengthen into a tropical storm before becoming a strong extratropical system over the open waters of the North Atlantic. If the system were to be named, it would be called Chantal.

Another system is trying to organize 800 miles east of the southern Windward Islands and environmental conditions are favorable for development. This will need to be monitored for further development so please monitor the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Atlantic for more information.

The Tropics are becoming more active. Now is the time to prepare as we head into the active portion of Hurricane Season. The VoIP Hurricane Net management team will continue to closely monitor these developments over the next few days. Thanks for the continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net
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Hello to all….

The National Hurricane Center will be starting to issue a new Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook on Sunday July 15th, 2007. Details on what this outlook is can be seen on the National Hurricane Center web site at the following link:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgtwo.shtml

This can be another helpful tool in preparing in advance for a tropical system. People who use the product will be allowed to give comments and feedback by using a web survey or email address as listed in the feedback and comments section provided in the link above.

The Tropics remain quiet but it is still quite early in the season. Recall 2004 when the first named system wasn’t until August and then a steady wave of landfalling and significant tropical systems occurred. Remain vigilant to the threat of tropical systems as we approach the more active tropical months of August and September.

Thanks to all for your continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net
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Hello to all….

VoIP Hurricane Net Control trainer, Matt Hoppes-KB3MSE, will be offering Net Control training classes to our current cadre of net controls and for anyone else in the Amateur community that is interested. Those that wish to listen in on those training classes may do so and anyone who expresses an interest in being a Net Control Operator can let Matt know at the training session and he will disseminate the information to the rest of the VoIP Hurricane Net Management team.

The following sessiong have been scheduled and the sessions will last approximately one hour. You only need to attend one session. The schedule is listed below:

SATURDAY 16-JUN-2007 2100 EASTERN TIME (Right After the Weekly VoIP Hurricane Net)
TUESDAY 19-JUN-2007 1200 EASTERN TIME/1600 UTC.
THURSDAY 21-JUN-2007 1800 EASTERN TIME/2200 UTC.
MONDAY 25-JUN-2007 1100 EASTERN TIME/1500 UTC.

The training session will walk through a Power Point presentation that is available on the VoIP Hurricane Net web site at http://www.voipwx.net by clicking the Net Control Training PPT link off the main menu. A direct link to the presentation has been provided below:

VoIP Hurricane Net Control Training PPT

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net
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Hello to all….

Tropical Storm Barry formed in the Southern Gulf of Mexico. Barry is currently expected to make landfall along the west coast of Florida as a tropical storm. The VoIP Hurricane Net Management team will closely monitor the progress of Barry. Barry is expected to bring heavy rainfall and strong winds as a remnant system to much of the US East Coast after it makes landfall and weakens on the West Coast of Florida.

Thanks for your continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net
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