Dr. Gray’s Early Seasonal Outlook on the 2007 Hurricane Season Posted
Hello to all….
On Friday December 8th, Dr. Gray’s Seasonal Hurricane Outlook for 2007 was posted. A link to the 2007 forecast and prior forecasts is listed below:
http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/
The forecast summary is quite detailed and technical. For those that are not that “technical” in terms of weather, Dr. Gray’s team is forecasting an above average 2007 hurricane season. Key risks/issues to that 2007 season being predicted as above average is the current moderate El Nino conditions which are expected to subside as the Hurricane Season starts along with other unfavorable indicators from 2006 becoming more favorable.
One of the main reasons for the lack of tropical systems in the 2006 season was the El Nino conditions of the past year. This resulted in higher than normal activity in the Eastern Pacific with near to below normal conditions in the Atlantic.
As with any long-range outlook, there are risks that the forecast will be wrong or changed as we get closer to the 2007 Hurricane Season. It should also be noted that the number of named systems is less significant than the location and intensity of the systems near land areas. In 1992, Hurricane Andrew caused significant devastation to Florida and Louisiana but was one of only 6 named systems that year. The location and intensity of the systems near land and public impact is typically what people will remember about any hurricane season versus the actual activity level in terms of named systems.
The next outlook from Dr. Gray’s team will be in early April 2007. NOAA typically issues their seasonal Hurricane Outlook in the April-May timeframe of each year.
Hope this information is helpful. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!
73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net
1
Hello to all….
On Friday December 8th, Dr. Gray’s Seasonal Hurricane Outlook for 2007 was posted. A link to the 2007 forecast and prior forecasts is listed below:
http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/
The forecast summary is quite detailed and technical. For those that are not that “technical” in terms of weather, Dr. Gray’s team is forecasting an above average 2007 hurricane season. Key risks/issues to that 2007 season being predicted as above average is the current moderate El Nino conditions which are expected to subside as the Hurricane Season starts along with other unfavorable indicators from 2006 becoming more favorable.
One of the main reasons for the lack of tropical systems in the 2006 season was the El Nino conditions of the past year. This resulted in higher than normal activity in the Eastern Pacific with near to below normal conditions in the Atlantic.
As with any long-range outlook, there are risks that the forecast will be wrong or changed as we get closer to the 2007 Hurricane Season. It should also be noted that the number of named systems is less significant than the location and intensity of the systems near land areas. In 1992, Hurricane Andrew caused significant devastation to Florida and Louisiana but was one of only 6 named systems that year. The location and intensity of the systems near land and public impact is typically what people will remember about any hurricane season versus the actual activity level in terms of named systems.
The next outlook from Dr. Gray’s team will be in early April 2007. NOAA typically issues their seasonal Hurricane Outlook in the April-May timeframe of each year.
Hope this information is helpful. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!
73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net
1