Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast & Atlantic Tropical Update – Thursday 8/9/12 at 800 PM EDT/0000UTC
Hello to all..
The following is the Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast and an update on the Atlantic Tropics. The Atlantic Tropics remain active for this time of year.
The NOAA Atlantic Hurricane Outlook and Dr. Gray’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast updates for August have been issued. The NOAA outlook keeps a near normal season forecast, however, they have also raised the percent probability of an above normal season to 35% which means a near to slightly above normal season is now expected. Dr. Gray’s seasonal forecast revised the total named storms upward to 14 stating a near normal season remains forecasted and below normal compared to the last 2 years. The forecast outlooks from Dr. Gray and NOAA are listed below:
Dr. Gray’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast:
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2012/aug2012/aug2012.pdf
NOAA Hurricane Outlook Press Release:
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20120809_atlantic_hurricane_season_update.html
Turning our attention to the Atlantic Tropics in the short term, Tropical Storm Ernesto made landfall in Southeast Mexico as a tropical storm. The main threat from Ernesto for Southeast Mexico is heavy rainfall.
Hello to all..
The following is the Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast and an update on the Atlantic Tropics. The Atlantic Tropics remain active for this time of year.
The NOAA Atlantic Hurricane Outlook and Dr. Gray’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast updates for August have been issued. The NOAA outlook keeps a near normal season forecast, however, they have also raised the percent probability of an above normal season to 35% which means a near to slightly above normal season is now expected. Dr. Gray’s seasonal forecast revised the total named storms upward to 14 stating a near normal season remains forecasted and below normal compared to the last 2 years. The forecast outlooks from Dr. Gray and NOAA are listed below:
Dr. Gray’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast:
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2012/aug2012/aug2012.pdf
NOAA Hurricane Outlook Press Release:
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20120809_atlantic_hurricane_season_update.html
Turning our attention to the Atlantic Tropics in the short term, Tropical Storm Ernesto made landfall in Southeast Mexico as a tropical storm. The main threat from Ernesto for Southeast Mexico is heavy rainfall.
Tropical Depression (TD) 7 has now formed 1155 miles east of the Windward Islands. TD 7 is expected to slowly strengthen over the next 48 hours and could become a tropical storm. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. If TD 7 becomes a tropical storm as expected, it will be named Gordon. The VoIP Hurricane Net Management team will closely monitor TD 7 and TD 7 Advisory information can be seen off the Main Menu of the Web site and can be seen via the National Hurricane Center web site via the following link:
Another tropical wave is already moving off the West Coast of Africa and is showing signs of devleopment as it moves west to west-northwestward at 15 MPH. This system has a 30% chance of development.
Finally, the remnants of Florence is located several hundred miles north of the Leeward Islands and while upper level winds may become more favorbale for development, significant redevelopment is not expected. This system has a 10% chance of development.
The VoIP Hurricane Net Management Team will closely monitor the Atlantic Tropics given recent activity. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!
73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net