Atlantic and Pacific Tropical Update 9/19/09

Hello to all…

For mid-September, the Atlantic Tropics have been unusually quiet as a moderate El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean has caused a hostile upper level wind environment that has resulted in a lack of activity in the Atlantic despite it being the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. That said, there are now a couple of systems being monitored in the Atlantic.

The first system is a small low pressure area in association with the remnants of Fred which has continued to produce intermittent shower and thunderstorm activity and has some potential for development. This system is located 475 miles east of the Northwest Bahamas and is moving west at 10-15 MPH. Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon though the latest tropical weather outlook states it has a low chance (less than 30%) of development.

Another system 1200 miles east of the Leeward Islands has become better organizard overnight and has the potential to become a tropical depression over the next day or two as it moves west-northwest at around 10 MPH. This system currently has a high chance, greater than 50% of development. Computer model runs, however, are indicating that this system could stay out at sea and recurve away from land if it does develop.

In the Pacific, Marty, once a tropical storm, is now a tropical depression well away from land areas and is expected to degenerate to a remnant low tonight or Sunday. Another small area of low pressure has a high chance (50% or greater of development) of becoming a tropical depression before upper level winds become less favorable for further development. None of these systems are a threat to land at this time.

The VoIP Hurricane Net Management Team will closely monitor the progress of these systems. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net

Hello to all…

For mid-September, the Atlantic Tropics have been unusually quiet as a moderate El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean has caused a hostile upper level wind environment that has resulted in a lack of activity in the Atlantic despite it being the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. That said, there are now a couple of systems being monitored in the Atlantic.

The first system is a small low pressure area in association with the remnants of Fred which has continued to produce intermittent shower and thunderstorm activity and has some potential for development. This system is located 475 miles east of the Northwest Bahamas and is moving west at 10-15 MPH. Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon though the latest tropical weather outlook states it has a low chance (less than 30%) of development.

Another system 1200 miles east of the Leeward Islands has become better organizard overnight and has the potential to become a tropical depression over the next day or two as it moves west-northwest at around 10 MPH. This system currently has a high chance, greater than 50% of development. Computer model runs, however, are indicating that this system could stay out at sea and recurve away from land if it does develop.

In the Pacific, Marty, once a tropical storm, is now a tropical depression well away from land areas and is expected to degenerate to a remnant low tonight or Sunday. Another small area of low pressure has a high chance (50% or greater of development) of becoming a tropical depression before upper level winds become less favorable for further development. None of these systems are a threat to land at this time.

The VoIP Hurricane Net Management Team will closely monitor the progress of these systems. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net