Hello to all..

After Tropical Drepression #8 briefly formed in the Atlantic late last week, the moderate El Nino conditions and the associated hostile upper level winds that occurs over the Atlantic with El Nino ripped the system apart and there are no other areas to monitor in the Atlantic for tropical development. In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Nora degenerated into a remnant low and is not expected to regenerate. There are no other areas in the Eastern Pacific being monitored for signs of tropical development at this time. The VoIP Hurricane Net Management Team will continue to monitor developments in the tropics. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net

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Hello to all…

The Moderate El Nino conditions continue to supress Atlantic Tropical activity by providing hostile upper level winds over the Atlantic. The systems mentioned in yesterday’s update have all fallen apart and the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida does not list any tropical systems having a chance for formation over the next 48 hours.

In the Eastern Pacific, one system has a low chance (less than 30 percent) for development 750 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California. The Pacific has certainly been more active than the Atlantic in 2009 but even there it is fairly quiet currently.

The VoIP Hurricane Net Management Team will continue to monitor the progress of the tropics. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net

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Hello to all…

For mid-September, the Atlantic Tropics have been unusually quiet as a moderate El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean has caused a hostile upper level wind environment that has resulted in a lack of activity in the Atlantic despite it being the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. That said, there are now a couple of systems being monitored in the Atlantic.

The first system is a small low pressure area in association with the remnants of Fred which has continued to produce intermittent shower and thunderstorm activity and has some potential for development. This system is located 475 miles east of the Northwest Bahamas and is moving west at 10-15 MPH. Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon though the latest tropical weather outlook states it has a low chance (less than 30%) of development.

Another system 1200 miles east of the Leeward Islands has become better organizard overnight and has the potential to become a tropical depression over the next day or two as it moves west-northwest at around 10 MPH. This system currently has a high chance, greater than 50% of development. Computer model runs, however, are indicating that this system could stay out at sea and recurve away from land if it does develop.

In the Pacific, Marty, once a tropical storm, is now a tropical depression well away from land areas and is expected to degenerate to a remnant low tonight or Sunday. Another small area of low pressure has a high chance (50% or greater of development) of becoming a tropical depression before upper level winds become less favorable for further development. None of these systems are a threat to land at this time.

The VoIP Hurricane Net Management Team will closely monitor the progress of these systems. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net

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Hello to all…

As stated earlier today, Recon Aircraft investigated the system east of the Leeward Islands and its investigation found Tropical Storm Erika with Maximum Sustained winds of 50 MPH and located about 390 Miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Erika has the possibility of affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands with tropical storm force conditions or it could stay over the open waters of the Atlantic with minimal impact to the islands. Erika is expected to slowly intensify at first and then may weaken for a bit before intensifying later in the period and potentially reaching hurricane strength late in the period or after the 120 hour time period. Its intensity may also determine the track with a weaker system being steered more to the west while a stronger system may be steered more toward the northwest. Future model runs and the intensity of Erika will better define the track. The advisory information for Erika can be found at the VoIP Hurricane Net web site at http://www.voipwx.net off the Main Menu of the web site. It can also be seen at the National Hurricane Center web site via the link below:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

VoIP Hurricane Net Activation for Erika doesn’t appear to be needed for several days. That said, the VoIP Hurricane Net Management Team will closely monitor the progress of Erika for any changes in track, intensity and anything unexpected from the system. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net

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Hello to all..

The Atlantic Tropics have a couple systems that are being monitored. The first system is about 275 miles east of the Leeward Islands and has the potential to be a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm at any time in the next couple of days as the system moves west-northwest at 10 MPH. Reconnaisance Aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon for possible classification as it has a high chance greater than 50% for development.

A tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic between the Cape Verde Islands and Africa is showing some signs of organization but development if any is expected to be slow to occur as the system moves west to west-northwest at 10-15 MPH. This has a low chance, less than 30% for development and we’d have several days to monitor this system before it reaches any land area.

Meantime in the Pacific, Hurricane Jimena is posed to threaten portions of Baja California as an extremely dangerous category-IV hurricane. At this time, the VoIP Hurricane Net has no plans to formally activate for Jimena as per coordination with WX4NHC Coordinators, this is a very remote area with very few Ham Operators. If, however, there are folks that have access to Hams or people in this area where we could gather reports, we would be interested in receiving this information and could consider activation if we have contact with the affected area.

The VoIP Hurricane Net Management Team will closely monitor conditions in the Tropics. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net

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