Hello to all….
Humberto surprised forecasters and intensified into a hurricane despite being very close to land. I want to thank several stations including an Amateur from Houma, Lousiana, AA5HY-Dave from DeSoto Louisiana ARES and several stations on the N5KBW Repeater near Port Arthur, Texas for the information they were able to provide Thursday Morning and it was appreciated. These stations gave their own conditions while relaying reports from other repeaters/frequencies to try and ascertain conditions near Humberto. Also, thanks to Lloyd Colston-KC5FM, for relaying reports from the Texas 40 Meter traffic net.
As many are aware, Humberto was a surprise in the amount of damage it caused and its rate of intensification. One of the issues in hurricane prediction that is still particularly problematic is intensification/weakening of tropical systems. To give you the idea of the rarity of such an intensification rate near land, here is a quote from the 11 AM EDT National Hurricane Center Technical Discussion written by Hurricane Specialist James Franklin:
BASED ON OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES…HUMBERTO STRENGTHENED FROM A 30 KT DEPRESSION AT 15Z YESTERDAY TO A 75 KT HURRICANE AT 09Z THIS MORNING…AN INCREASE OF 45 KT IN 18 HOURS. TO PUT THIS DEVELOPMENT IN PERSPECTIVE…NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD HAS EVER REACHED THIS INTENSITY AT A FASTER RATE NEAR LANDFALL. IT WOULD BE NICE TO KNOW…SOMEDAY…WHY THIS HAPPENED.
In fact, per an AP Internet article, only 3 tropical systems, Blanche in 1969, Harvey in 1981, and Alberto in 1982 have ever made such a rapid intensification and these systems were all away from land. Humberto was the first system ever to rapidly intensify in the same manner as these systems and be close to land.
Finally, a report was found on a New England Weather Forum called Eastern US weather on damage and conditions in Southeast Texas from a poster who had a contact with an individual in Harris County, TX flood control. Below is the text of that report:
Here are the Harris County Texas Flood Control reports:
Harris County Flood Control:
1 fatality in Bridge City TX
Total power outages : 115,000
Power infrastructure is damaged, but large transmission towers appear to have survived..so outages should be confined to 3-5 days.
First damage assessment teams indicate wind damage is confined to roofing materials and window failures as well as widespread tree fall.
Galveston, Chambers, Jefferson, Orange counties are requesting federal disaster declarations.
Jefferson Co:
73,000 without power.
Widespread minor to moderate wind damage to structures across the county.
Petro-chemical plants in BPT have been knocked offline due to power failures (Valero, Motiva, and Total Petrochemicals)
All critical services are offline (water, sewer, hospitals, gas stations)
City of Port Arthur is 80% without power.
Hampshire area: significant wind damage to houses with trees down and into homes.
Orange County:
Entire county is without power.
Widespread tree fall into structures
Galveston County:
HWY 87 is closed to all traffic
Large powerline transmission towers have collapsed onto HWY 87.
Storm surge and wave action breached parts of HWY 87.
Estimated power restoration to Bolivar is 3-5 days.
Houses have suffered wind damage to roofs and decking at Crystal Beach and High Island.
It is estimated that 500 residents are stranded on Bolivar
Humberto will be an excellent research case for forecasters for better hurricane intensity prediction. Thanks to those Hams who assisted quickly to a rapidly changing weather situation. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!
73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net 1
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