Hello to all….

TD #4 is now Tropical Storm Dean and is making its way towards the Caribbean islands. It is expected to become a hurricane and potentially affect portions of the Caribbean islands towards the end of the week. This system has the potential to cause a VoIP Hurricane Net activation in the Friday to Saturday timeframe.

Another system is potentially developing in the Gulf of Mexico. Further details/comments on that system will be made after the Recon mission this afternoon.

All people in the Caribbean islands through Puerto Rico should closely monitor the progress of Dean. All people in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico region should closely monitor the area of disturbed weather in the South-Central Gulf.

Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net
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Hello to all….

In coordination with Connie McCurdy-NH7IE, VoIP Hurricane Net Control Operator and member of Hawaii SKYWARN and RACES and Julio Ripoll-WD4R, WX4NHC, National Hurricane Center Coordinator, the VoIP Hurricane Net will activate informally starting at 4 AM EDT/0800 UTC to monitor the threat posed by Hurricane Flossie to the big island of Hawaii. The informal activation is expected last through Wednesday Morning at this time.

While reports will be funneled to the NWS Office in Honolulu, Hawaii which is colocated with the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in the same building, in coordination with Julio Ripoll, there is interest in their team and the NHC in Miami in obtaining the reports. Reports will be forwarded by the VoIP Net NCO team to Julio and the NHC team by various means.

Hurricane Flossie has weakened to a Category 3 Hurricane but it remains a formidible system and a threat to the big island of Hawaii with at least tropical storm force conditions. Any track deviation to the north could pose a bigger threat to the big island of Hawaii. The center is currently expected to track only about 80-90 miles south of the big island of Hawaii. A deviation of as little as 50 miles north or south could be a huge change in the impact to the big island. The other islands in Hawaii are not expected to be seriously impacted by Flossie but this is also dependent on the eventual track of Flossie.

There are several IRLP nodes in Hawaii that will be utilized to connect into *WX-TALK Node: 7203/IRLP 9219 reflector system. Folks from Hawaii will either be on continuously or check-in periodically with the VoIP Net team to give their reports. Given only one island and marine interests will be affected at this time, there is most likely not going to be a large quantity of reports but the reports that are received will be vital. If the track is closer, more reports and information could potentially be received.

The reporting criteria and activation policy for our net during hurricane net activations can be found on our web site at http://www.voipwx.net

Listen Only IRLP/EchoLink capability include the following systems:

IRLP:
Reflector 9508 Syndey Australia Reflector channel 8.
Reflector 9129 New England Reflector channel 9.

EchoLink:
*KC4QLP-C* Node: 290251
*VKEMCOMM* Node: 270177

It is possible that the *N5API* EchoLink Node: 77433 listen only conference may also be connected to the system as it has permission to connect.

If any Amateurs have contacts with Hawaii and can relay reports from there, it would be greatly appreciated. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net
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Hello to all….

Tropical Depression (TD) #4 has formed in the Atlantic southwest of the Cape Verde Islands of Africa. TD #4 is expected to strengthen and has the potential to become the first hurricane of the 2007 season. If TD #4 strengthens as predicted, it would be named Dean. The system poses no immediate threat to land for the next several days but could become a threat to a land area towards the weekend or early next week.

The VoIP Hurricane Net Management team will continue to closely monitor the progress of this system. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net
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Hello to all….

At 11 AM EDT/1500 UTC Monday August 13th, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) based in Honolulu, Hawaii has issued a Hurricane Watch for the big island of Hawaii for Hurricane Flossie. Flossie remains an extremely dangerous Category IV hurricane. Flossie is expected to weaken as it approached the big island but has the potential to bring hurricane force conditions to the big island. The track and intensity of the system will ultimately determine the impact to the big island of Hawaii.

The VoIP Hurricane Net management team has been in daily contact with Connie McCurdy-NH7IE, a Net Control for the VoIP Hurricane Net who is from Hawaii and is involved with SKYWARN for NWS Honolulu, Hawaii. We have discussed and are prepared to offer our support in whatever manner she sees fit. The support model here is different since the CPHC is co-located with NWS Honolulu, HI but she has already mentioned the possible need for NCO support during their overnight hours.

The VoIP Hurricane Net Management team is closely monitoring the progress of Hurricane Flossie and may offer support to Hawaii SKYWARN and Civil Defense to the extent that it is needed. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net
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Hello to all….

Within the past week, NOAA and Dr. Gray have both issued their Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks. Their outlooks call for slightly less activity but remain insistent on above normal acitivity for the Atlantic. Details on the forecasts can be seen at the following links:

NOAA Press Release and Outlook Links:
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2905.htm
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml

Dr. Gray’s Hurricane Outlook Link to current and previous forecasts:
http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/

While the activity level has been lowered, the season is still expected to be active. While there have only been 3 tropical systems so far this year and they have been relatively weak with none of them reaching hurricane strength, the peak of hurricane season is September 15th and the majority of activity, even in active years, typically occurs in August through October. A particular year of note with that trend is 2004 where the first named system wasn’t until August but from August through mid-October, the season was extremely active with many land areas affected by tropical systems, particularly, the state of Florida.

For this year, an active pattern still appears likely. The key to how the season will be remembered is the location, and intensity of systems and whether they impact land areas. In 1992, there were only 7 named systems, but Hurricane Andrew affected the lives of many people.

The VoIP Hurricane Net Management team continues to monitor the tropics closely. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net
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Hello to all….

A few items of interest in the tropics as of August 11th, 1130 AM/1530 UTC.

In the Central Pacific, Hurricane Flossie is now a major hurricane and the National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida has issued its last advisory on the system and advisories will now be picked up by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii. The VoIP Hurricane Net web site will be updated after 6 PM EDT/2200 UTC with links to the advisory information from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

It appears Flossie has reached its peak intensity but intensity forecasts can be problematic so this will be monitored closely. The current track guidance passes Flossie south of Hawaii but much of Hawaii remains in the cone of uncertainity as far as the track of Flossie and there is a concern that if the High pressure ridge breaks down more than what models forecast, the system could have more impact to that area though its questionable how strong it would be as we move out in time as well. This will be monitored closely and contact has been made with VoIP Net Control Operator, Connie-NH7IE, who is in Hawaii in case our support is needed.

In the Atlantic, a vigorous tropical wave is moving off the Africa coast. Various weather computer models have been insistent for several days that this system could develop and become significant with possible land areas on the Atlantic side impacted, however, model guidance is not always correct and its many days away from impacting anyone if it even develops but it is worth noting this system at this time for long range planning purposes given the models consistency with developing this system.

The VoIP Hurricane Net Management Team will continue to monitor the progress of Flossie and activity in the Atlantic over the next few days. Thanks to all for their continued support of the VoIP Hurricane Net!

73,Rob-KD1CY.
Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net
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